Caterpillar (CAT) vs Industrial Sector (XLI)
Caterpillar closed at $835.24 in April 2026 with a market cap of $383.96 billion. The 52-week range is $302.18 to $845.27, a 2.8x range that captures one of the most violent single-stock moves in the S&P 500 over the past year.
Also known as: Caterpillar (CAT) (STK_CAT, Caterpillar) · Industrials (XLI) (ETF_XLI, industrials)
Why This Comparison Matters
Caterpillar closed at $835.24 in April 2026 with a market cap of $383.96 billion. The 52-week range is $302.18 to $845.27, a 2.8x range that captures one of the most violent single-stock moves in the S&P 500 over the past year. XLI traded near $171.18 the same period. CAT is the largest XLI holding at 7.06 percent of fund assets. The pair captures heavy-machinery and global-construction-cycle dynamics versus the broader industrial complex (aerospace, electrical equipment, transportation, defense). Year-to-date 2026, CAT has gained roughly 12 percent versus XLI 6 percent. Q4 2025 results beat consensus with EPS of $5.16 versus $4.67 expected and revenue of $19.13 billion versus $17.81 billion. Q1 2026 earnings on April 30 are the next major catalyst.
CAT Position in XLI
CAT at 7.06 percent of XLI is the single largest position. The XLI top five hierarchy: Caterpillar 7.06 percent, GE Vernova 5.70 percent, GE Aerospace 5.43 percent, RTX 4.55 percent, Boeing 3.41 percent. CAT plus the two GE successor companies (combined 11.13 percent for GE Vernova plus GE Aerospace) represent approximately 18 percent of XLI.
The CAT/XLI ratio currently trades at approximately 4.88 (CAT $835.24 / XLI $171.18). The ratio has gained dramatically over 12 months as CAT recovered from the $302 cyclical low in early 2025 to $835 in April 2026. The 12-month range is approximately 1.95 to 4.95. The current 4.88 reflects CAT-specific recovery driven by mining-equipment demand, AI-data-center power equipment growth, and successful execution through tariff-related cost pressures.
CAT Business Mix
Caterpillar operates four primary segments. Construction Industries (approximately 40 percent of revenue) sells excavators, loaders, dozers, asphalt pavers, and compactors to construction contractors. Resource Industries (approximately 30 percent of revenue) sells mining trucks, drills, and underground mining equipment to mining companies. Energy and Transportation (approximately 25 percent of revenue) sells power-generation equipment, locomotive engines, marine engines, and oil-and-gas equipment. Financial Products (5 percent of revenue) provides equipment financing.
The segment mix matters because each tracks different macro drivers. Construction tracks US infrastructure spending, residential and commercial construction. Resource tracks commodity prices and mining capex (copper, gold, iron ore prices). Energy and Transportation tracks oil prices, AI-data-center demand for backup power, and rail volumes. The diversified mix produces stable revenue through cycles but also makes CAT a complex single-stock proxy for industrial conditions.
The 52-Week Range Story
CAT's 52-week range of $302.18 to $845.27 represents one of the largest annual price moves in S&P 500 history. The recovery from the 2025 low reflects a confluence of catalysts.
First, mining-equipment demand acceleration: copper prices reached $5.50 per pound in 2026 (versus $4.10 average in 2024), driving major copper producers to sanction new projects requiring CAT equipment. Iron ore and gold mining capex similarly accelerated.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Industrials (XLI) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Caterpillar (CAT). Computed from 1,286 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Industrials (XLI) rises 0.24% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.24%. 129 qualifying events; Industrials (XLI) closed positive in 60% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is CAT's current price and market cap?+
Caterpillar closed at $835.24 in April 2026 with a market cap of $383.96 billion. The 52-week range is $302.18 to $845.27, a 2.8x range that captures one of the most violent single-stock moves in the S&P 500 over the past year. CAT is 7.06 percent of XLI, the single largest position. The CAT/XLI ratio is approximately 4.88 (CAT $835.24 / XLI $171.18). The 12-month ratio range is approximately 1.95 to 4.95. CAT YTD 2026 +12 percent vs XLI +6 percent. Forward P/E at $835/$22 2026 EPS = ~38x, elevated vs historical 17-20x average reflecting recovery cycle confidence.
What's in CAT's business mix?+
Four primary segments. Construction Industries (~40 percent of revenue) sells excavators, loaders, dozers, asphalt pavers, compactors. Resource Industries (~30 percent) sells mining trucks, drills, underground mining equipment. Energy and Transportation (~25 percent) sells power-generation equipment, locomotive engines, marine engines, oil-and-gas equipment. Financial Products (~5 percent) provides equipment financing. Each segment tracks different macro drivers: Construction tracks US infrastructure and residential/commercial construction; Resource tracks commodity prices and mining capex; Energy and Transportation tracks oil, AI data center backup power, and rail volumes.
What drove the 52-week range from $302 to $845?+
Confluence of catalysts. First, mining-equipment demand acceleration: copper prices reached $5.50/lb in 2026 (vs $4.10 avg 2024) driving major copper producers to sanction new projects requiring CAT equipment. Second, AI data center power: hyperscaler buildouts require massive power-generation backup, CAT Energy and Transportation orderbook reportedly grew 40+ percent in 2025. Third, infrastructure spending: 2026 IIJA acceleration and state-level projects drove construction equipment demand. Fourth, tariff resolution and management execution: CAT successfully passed through cost increases without losing market share, demonstrating pricing power.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.