CONVEX
Research

Tracked Scenarios

Macro scenarios under active surveillance. Each scenario is tracked with a Bayesian probability model, updated via evidence from 150+ economic indicators.

How our probability model works →

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All scenario probabilities are computed using a Bayesian log-odds model with time-decay, cross-metric correlation adjustment, and simultaneous coherence enforcement.

Read our full methodology →

Scenario updates by email

Probability shifts, new evidence, and the scenarios quietly heating up.