Scenario × Asset Analysis

What Happens to HY Credit Spread (OAS) When Durable Goods Orders Plummet?

What happens when durable goods orders plummet? Capex signal, manufacturing weakness, and investment cycle implications.

HY Credit Spread (OAS)

295 bps

as of Apr 13, 2026

Full chart →

Trigger: Durable Goods Orders

315,879

Condition: declines 10%+ month-over-month

Monitor trigger →

How HY Credit Spread (OAS) Responds

When Durable Goods Orders Plummet, HY Credit Spread (OAS) typically responds to the changing macro environment. ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, the market's price of default risk. This scenario is particularly relevant for credit & financial stress because changes in Durable Goods Orders directly influence the macro environment for HY Credit Spread (OAS). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and HY Credit Spread (OAS)'s response to position accordingly.

Scenario Background

Durable goods orders measure new orders placed with US manufacturers for long-lived items (machinery, transportation equipment, computers, appliances). Core capital goods orders (ex-defense, ex-aircraft) are the cleanest capex signal, while headline orders include volatile aircraft categories that can swing prints significantly.

Read full scenario analysis →

Historical Context

Durable goods orders have seen sharp declines during every recession: 2008-2009 (peak -40% YoY), 2020 (-60% in April), and 2001 (peak -25%). Post-COVID orders have been elevated due to pent-up demand, supply chain catch-up, and AI-related capex (semiconductors, data center equipment). Core capital goods orders have been particularly resilient in 2023-2024.