Credit & Financial Stressdaily
HY Credit Spread (OAS)
ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, the market's price of default risk.
Credit markets are often the first to signal trouble. Widening high-yield spreads and rising financial stress indexes have historically led equity drawdowns by weeks or months. Tracking these gauges helps identify when risk appetite is contracting and defensive positioning is warranted.
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Related in Credit & Financial Stress
IG Credit Spread (OAS)
ICE BofA Investment Grade OAS, credit stress in high-quality corporate bonds.
HY Effective Yield
HY corporate bond effective yield, total return required by junk bond investors.
IG Effective Yield
IG corporate bond effective yield, cost of investment-grade corporate borrowing.
BBB Credit Spread
BBB-rated corporate bond OAS, the lowest rung of investment grade.
Explore Further
Forecast 2026
HY Credit Spread (OAS) Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using regime implied approach.
Comparison
HY Credit Spreads vs S&P 500
High yield credit spreads are often called the "canary in the coal mine" for equity markets. When HY spreads widen while...
Comparison
VIX vs HY Credit Spreads
The VIX measures equity volatility expectations while HY spreads measure credit risk pricing. When both spike simultaneo...
Comparison
IG vs HY Credit Spreads
Investment grade and high yield spreads both measure credit risk, but at different quality tiers. When HY spreads widen ...
Comparison
Chicago NFCI vs HY Spreads
The Chicago Fed NFCI captures broad financial conditions including leverage, credit, and risk measures, while HY spreads...
Comparison
Bank Lending Standards vs HY Spreads
The Senior Loan Officer Survey measures bank willingness to lend, while HY spreads measure the market price of default r...
Comparison
Recession Index vs HY Spreads
The CRPI aggregates hard economic data while HY spreads reflect market sentiment about default risk. When the CRPI signa...
Comparison
Bitcoin vs High Yield Credit Spreads
HY spreads are the cleanest read on credit cycle stress, and bitcoin typically declines when spreads widen aggressively....
Comparison
BBB Spread vs HY Spread
BBB is the lowest IG tier, so BBB widening faster than HY signals concerns about IG downgrades into HY (fallen angels). ...
Comparison
HY Spreads vs Russell 2000 (IWM)
HY spreads and IWM are both sensitive to small-firm credit conditions. HY widening typically pressures IWM because small...
Scenario
What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?
What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal ex...
Scenario
What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers?
What happens when the Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers? Every historical instance, market impacts, and what it mea...
Scenario
What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out?
What happens when junk bond credit spreads widen past 500 bps? Credit crises, contagion risk, and the flight to quality ...
Scenario
What Happens When Unemployment Rises?
What happens when the unemployment rate rises? Consumer spending impacts, market reactions, and the economic feedback lo...
Scenario
What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?
What happens when Bitcoin crashes 30%+? Crypto contagion, risk-off cascades, and whether BTC drawdowns spill into tradit...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes?
What happens to markets when the Fed stops raising rates? Historical patterns from rate pauses, asset class playbooks, a...
Scenario
What Happens When Initial Jobless Claims Spike?
What happens when weekly jobless claims surge? The highest-frequency recession indicator, what levels matter, and how ma...
Scenario
What Happens When the VIX Drops Below 12?
What happens when market volatility hits extreme lows? The risks of complacency, historical parallels, and how to positi...
Scenario
What Happens When Credit Spreads Hit Record Tights?
What happens when high yield credit spreads compress to historically tight levels? The risks of complacency in corporate...
Scenario
What Happens When Banks Tighten Lending Standards?
What happens when banks pull back on lending? How tighter credit standards predict recessions, default waves, and the tr...
Scenario
What Happens When ISM Manufacturing Drops Below 45?
What happens when the manufacturing sector enters deep contraction? Historical recession correlation, supply chain effec...
Scenario
What Happens When Financial Conditions Tighten?
What happens when the Chicago Fed NFCI signals tight financial conditions? How credit conditions transmit through the ec...
Scenario
What Happens When the Savings Rate Hits Zero?
What happens when Americans stop saving? The consumer spending cliff, credit card debt explosion, and what it means when...
Scenario
What Happens When Emerging Market Currencies Crash?
What happens when emerging market currencies collapse? Contagion risk, capital flight, commodity impact, and whether EM ...
Scenario
What Happens When GDP Contracts?
What happens to markets, policy, and the economy when real GDP contracts? Historical playbook for recession quarters, wi...
Scenario
What Happens When the Sahm Rule Exceeds 1.0?
The Sahm Rule triggers recession alerts when unemployment rises 0.5 points. What happens when it exceeds 1.0, signaling ...
Scenario
What Happens When the 10Y Treasury Yield Exceeds 5%?
10-year Treasury yields above 5% represent extreme tightening of financial conditions. What happens to equities, housing...
Scenario
What Happens When DXY Hits 120?
Extreme dollar strength creates global stress. What happens when the broad dollar index hits multi-decade highs, pressur...
Scenario
What Happens When Fear & Greed Index Hits Extreme Greed?
Extreme greed readings signal euphoria and contrarian sell signals. What happens when sentiment indicators hit maximum o...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Recession Probability Index Spikes?
What happens when the Convex Recession Probability Index signals elevated recession risk? Composite of leading indicator...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Net Liquidity Index Contracts?
What happens when aggregate USD net liquidity contracts? Impact on risk assets, Bitcoin, and equity multiples when Fed b...
Scenario
What Happens When Average Weekly Hours Collapse?
What happens when average weekly hours worked collapse? Early warning of labor demand weakness before layoffs begin....
Scenario
What Happens When Real GDP Turns Negative?
What happens when real GDP contracts? Recession definition, Fed response, and historical market behavior during negative...
Scenario
What Happens When Fed Funds Rate Exceeds 6%?
What happens when the Fed funds rate exceeds 6%? Financial stress, economic slowdown risk, and historical precedents fro...
Scenario
What Happens When Bank Lending Standards Tighten Sharply?
What happens when banks sharply tighten lending standards? Credit contraction effects, business investment decline, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When Oil Drops Below $30?
What happens when WTI crude oil drops below $30? Producer stress, geopolitical implications, and disinflation effects....
Scenario
What Happens When Defensive Sectors Lead the Market?
What happens when staples (XLP) sharply outperform discretionary (XLY)? Recession signal, defensive positioning, and sec...
Scenario
What Happens When Corporate Profits Peak?
What happens when corporate profits peak and begin declining? Earnings recession signal, equity market implications, and...
Indicator
Convex Recession Probability Index (CRPI)
The Convex CRPI combines yield curve dynamics, the Sahm Rule, initial claims momentum, credit spreads, and leading econo...
Indicator
Convex Risk Appetite Index (CRAI)
The Convex CRAI measures real-time risk appetite across 5 cross-asset price ratios: small caps vs large caps, high-yield...
Category
All Credit & Financial Stress Data
Credit spreads, financial stress indexes, and default risk indicators. Monitor high-yield spreads, the TED spread, and s...
Frequently Asked Questions
▶What is HY Credit Spread (OAS)?
ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, the market's price of default risk.
▶How does HY Credit Spread (OAS) relate to credit & financial stress?
HY Credit Spread (OAS) is part of the Credit & Financial Stress category. Credit markets are often the first to signal trouble. Widening high-yield spreads and rising financial stress indexes have historically led equity drawdowns by weeks or months. Tracking these gauges helps identify when risk appetite is contracting and defensive positioning is warranted.
▶How often is HY Credit Spread (OAS) updated?
HY Credit Spread (OAS) is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source HY Credit Spread (OAS) data?
Convex sources HY Credit Spread (OAS) data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the HY Credit Spread (OAS) chart page?
The HY Credit Spread (OAS) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.