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US Recession Probability
Composite recession probability computed from 5 leading economic indicators. Updated daily with live data.
Convex Recession Probability Index (CRPI)
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Component Indicators
Methodology
The Convex Recession Probability Index (CRPI) is a composite of 5 components, each contributing 0-20 points on a 0-100 scale: yield curve inversion depth (10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads), Sahm Rule proximity (unemployment rate acceleration), initial claims momentum (3-month change), high-yield credit spread z-score (1-year lookback), and Conference Board Leading Economic Index trajectory. The index is computed daily from live FRED data.
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