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US Treasury Yield Curve Monitor
Interactive yield curve with inversion tracking across 2s10s, 3m10y, 2s5s, and 5s30s. Updated daily from FRED constant-maturity yields.
Curve status
Normal
2s10s spread
+51bps
3m10y spread
+71bps
Days inverted
0
Last updated: Apr 30, 2026
Yield curve by tenor
Compare today's curve against 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year historical snapshots. Tap legend items to toggle.
Source: FRED (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Constant maturity Treasury yields. Missing tenors reflect data gaps at selected historical dates.
Key spreads
2s10s (10Y - 2Y)
+51bpsClassic recession bellwether. Every inversion since 1955 has preceded recession.
Chart history →3m10y (10Y - 3M)
+71bpsFed's preferred recession indicator. Stronger historical forward-looking signal.
Chart history →2s5s (5Y - 2Y)
+14bpsBelly of the curve. Reflects medium-term growth vs. Fed path expectations.
5s30s (30Y - 5Y)
+96bpsLong-end slope. Captures term premium and long-run inflation pricing.
2s10s spread history
Spread between 10-year and 2-year yields. Readings below zero (the dashed line) indicate curve inversion.
3m10y spread history
10-year minus 3-month. The Fed's preferred recession indicator per Estrella & Mishkin (1996) research.
How to read the yield curve
- Normal / Steep: Long yields exceed short yields, compensating investors for duration risk. Typical of expansion and early recovery.
- Flat: Long and short yields converge. Market is unsure about the growth path and often precedes late-cycle transitions.
- Inverted: Short yields exceed long yields. Every US recession since 1955 has been preceded by a 2s10s inversion, usually 6-18 months before the onset.
- Re-steepening: After inversion, the curve re-steepens as the Fed cuts. Historically, this is the period when recession risk peaks — not during the inversion itself.
Related tools
Get notified when the yield curve inverts, re-steepens, or the 2s10s moves more than 25bps in a week.
Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Treasury Constant Maturity series, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.