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Fed Rate Path Simulator

Compare the market-implied Fed funds path with dovish, base, and hawkish scenarios. See how each move reshapes Treasuries, the dollar, equities, and gold.

Effective Fed Funds

3.64%

Target (upper)

3.75%

Next meeting cut prob.

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Implied over 6m

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Data as of Apr 30, 2026

Simulate your scenario

Toggle between preset paths or build your own using the slider. Dashed grey line is the current market-implied path.

Fed Funds futures data is currently unavailable. The simulator will resume when CME FedWatch data is next ingested (typically within 1 hour).

Federal Funds Rate history

Monthly average effective rate going back across prior hiking and cutting cycles.

No data available

Methodology

Fed Funds futures (ticker ZQ on CME) settle at 100 minus the arithmetic average of the daily EFFR for the contract month. Implied rate = 100 − futures price. We derive the probability of a 25bp move at each upcoming month by comparing implied rate with current EFFR (CME's "step-function" methodology). Data is ingested hourly during US market hours with 10-minute delay. The scenario simulator overlays a user-defined linear path against this market-implied path; asset sensitivities in the impact matrix are historical averages drawn from 1994-2024 episodes and should be treated as directional guidance, not forecasts.

Related tools

Yield Curve Monitor →

The 2s10s and 3m10y spreads the Fed shapes.

Recession Probability →

When market expects rapid cuts, recession risk is often elevated.

FEDFUNDS Chart →

Full historical federal funds rate series.

Fed Funds Rate Glossary →

Definition, mechanics, and historical context.

Get alerts when the next-meeting cut probability moves more than 15 percentage points in a week.

Not investment advice. Futures pricing reflects market consensus, which is frequently wrong. Historical asset sensitivities may break down during regime changes, financial crises, or wartime monetary policy.