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Track Record · Accountability

Forecast Calibration: Predicted vs Actual

Every macro scenario Convex has tracked, with the probability at peak conviction, the final reading before resolution, and the recorded outcome. The point is accountability: if the AI editorial system is wrong, the record shows it.

Methodology: scenario probabilities are produced by the Bayesian engine described on the scenario methodology page. A scenario is "resolved" when the underlying event has occurred or the resolution date has passed without it occurring. Both directions are logged here.

Sample size

Resolved
1
With probability series
0
Average peak %
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Resolved scenarios

Resolved

Fed Pivot Timeline

Thesis: The Federal Reserve begins cutting the federal funds rate within the next 12 months, driven by labor market softening and/or financial stability concerns, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target.

Outcome: The Federal Reserve cut rates from 5.25-5.50% to 3.50-3.75% (175bp total cuts). DFEDTARU confirmed at 3.75% via FRED. 2Y yield at 3.79%, below the 4.00% threshold. The thesis — that the Fed would begin cutting driven by labor market softening and/or financial stability concerns — has fully materialised. Resolved manually after lifecycle flagged 1/2 conditions met; the 30-day sustained requirement on 2Y yield is a formality given the rate has already been cut 7 times.

Peak—
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Related

All Scenarios
Active and resolved
Scenario Methodology
How probabilities are computed
Corrections Log
Errors and revisions on the record