Khamenei slain, USMCA scrapped, June payrolls stall at 57K

The week of June 29 to July 3 delivered two structural shocks on top of an already stressed macro tape. On June 30 reports emerged that the United States would not renew USMCA, and by July 1 the fate of the $2 trillion North American trade pact was formally in doubt as the deadline passed, with Greer's move framed around Canada's ties to China. The desk's coverage called it plainly: USMCA is dead, and the escalation is running through the supply chain rather than the tariff line. Then the geopolitical center of gravity shifted again. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was slain, Tehran began a week of funeral ceremonies on July 3, millions were expected to mourn in the capital, and Trump vowed calm during the funeral. Weekend coverage added Ukraine's strike on a St. Petersburg oil terminal and Beijing's coastguard move east of Taiwan to the risk ledger.

The data flow compounded the unease. The June employment report landed on July 2 with the economy adding just 57K jobs and the unemployment rate at 4.20%, and the dollar index retreated on the release. Initial jobless claims printed at 215,000 in the July 4 data. Yet Treasuries did not trade like a growth scare: the 10-year yield rose 11bps on the week to 4.49%. Domestic infrastructure added its own stress signal on July 4, when the largest US power grid ordered emergency curbs to avoid blackouts.

The cross-asset result was a haven and hard-asset bid alongside a resilient equity tape. Gold climbed 3.30% to 4201.50. Bitcoin rose 6.72% to 63,580 and Ethereum outperformed with a 13.50% gain to 1,784, extending the theme the desk flagged midweek, that bitcoin was pricing a crisis the stock market could not see. The S&P 500 itself rose 2.17% to 7447.80. Crude was the outlier: WTI fell 2.48% to 68.31 and Brent lost 2.20% to 71.65, even with the strait closed and OPEC raising output into the disruption; the desk argued the supply shock was latent, not gone.