Sahm Rule Recession Indicator in 2015
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator opened 2015 at 0.00% and closed at -0.03%, a +0.00% move for the year. The high of 0.00% was reached on January 1, and the low of -0.13% on August 1.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| Feb | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | +0.00% |
| Mar | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | +0.00% |
| Apr | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | +0.00% |
| May | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| Jun | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.07% | +0.00% |
| Jul | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | +0.00% |
| Aug | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.13% | +0.00% |
| Sep | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.07% | +0.00% |
| Oct | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | +0.00% |
| Nov | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | +0.00% |
| Dec | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | +0.00% |
Events During 2015
The PBoC devalued the yuan by 1.9% in a single day on August 11, 2015, the first meaningful devaluation since 1994. Global risk assets convulsed.
Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003.
The Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor on January 15, 2015. The franc immediately surged 30%, blowing up retail FX brokers and exposing the fragility of exchange rate commitments.
Related Metrics
Get historical context as markets unfold, regime classification, scenario triggers, and analysis in your inbox.