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Fed Policy Expectationsdaily
FedWatch Cut Probability (M3)
Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M3 priced in CME Fed Funds futures.
Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for FedWatch Cut Probability (M3), blended across current macro regimes.
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Related in Fed Policy Expectations
FedWatch Next-Meeting Cut Probability
Market-implied probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, derived from CME Fed Funds futures.
FedWatch Next-Meeting Implied Rate
Market-implied effective fed funds rate priced for the next FOMC meeting, from CME Fed Funds futures.
FedWatch Implied Rate (M1)
Market-implied effective fed funds rate for the next FOMC meeting from CME Fed Funds futures.
FedWatch Cut Probability (M1)
Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M1 priced in CME Fed Funds futures.
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Frequently Asked Questions
▶What is FedWatch Cut Probability (M3)?
Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M3 priced in CME Fed Funds futures.
▶How often is FedWatch Cut Probability (M3) updated?
FedWatch Cut Probability (M3) is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source FedWatch Cut Probability (M3) data?
Convex sources FedWatch Cut Probability (M3) data from official government and market data providers. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the FedWatch Cut Probability (M3) chart page?
The FedWatch Cut Probability (M3) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.