10Y Note Net Speculative Positioning in 2015
10Y Note Net Speculative Positioning opened 2015 at -243,180 and closed at 42,981, a +117.67% move for the year. The high of 65,642 was reached on July 28, and the low of -243,180 on January 6.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -243,180 | -107,892 | -107,892 | -243,180 | +55.63% |
| Feb | -118,780 | -109,710 | -44,816 | -118,780 | +7.64% |
| Mar | -139,474 | -113,810 | -107,530 | -179,807 | +18.40% |
| Apr | -162,427 | -98,565 | -98,565 | -162,427 | +39.32% |
| May | -183,116 | -83,534 | -83,534 | -183,116 | +54.38% |
| Jun | -73,605 | -3,504 | -3,504 | -96,449 | +95.24% |
| Jul | -32,738 | 65,642 | 65,642 | -32,738 | +300.51% |
| Aug | 32,498 | 1,313 | 47,807 | 1,313 | -95.96% |
| Sep | -2,795 | 22,490 | 22,490 | -39,478 | +904.65% |
| Oct | -2,543 | -35,663 | 17,692 | -37,813 | -1302.40% |
| Nov | -164,264 | 35,112 | 35,112 | -164,264 | +121.38% |
| Dec | 15,519 | 42,981 | 42,981 | -24,549 | +176.96% |
Events During 2015
The PBoC devalued the yuan by 1.9% in a single day on August 11, 2015, the first meaningful devaluation since 1994. Global risk assets convulsed.
Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003.
The Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor on January 15, 2015. The franc immediately surged 30%, blowing up retail FX brokers and exposing the fragility of exchange rate commitments.
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