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Bitcoin

Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency and macro risk-on barometer.

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Bitcoin Outlook

Scenario-weighted forecast using scenario weighted approach.

Gold vs Bitcoin

Gold and Bitcoin compete as stores of value and inflation hedges, but behave very differently in risk-off environments. ...

Bitcoin vs Ethereum

Bitcoin and Ethereum serve different purposes in the crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin is the store-of-value and monetary asset;...

Bitcoin vs S&P 500

Bitcoin's correlation with equities has increased as institutional adoption grows, but it remains more volatile and can ...

Bitcoin vs Nasdaq 100

Bitcoin has been increasingly correlated with the Nasdaq because both are long-duration, growth-sensitive assets that be...

Bitcoin vs Long Bonds

Bitcoin and TLT both respond to rate expectations but in different ways. TLT rallies when rates fall, benefiting from du...

Bitcoin Funding Rate vs Bitcoin Price

The funding rate shows whether leveraged traders are net long (positive funding) or net short (negative funding). Extrem...

CFTC Bitcoin Positioning vs BTC

CME Bitcoin futures positioning represents institutional and regulated-market participants, unlike exchange funding rate...

Net Liquidity vs Bitcoin

Bitcoin is often called a "liquidity sponge" because it's one of the most sensitive assets to changes in system-wide liq...

Bitcoin vs US Dollar Index

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to global dollar liquidity. A strong dollar drains risk appetite, tightens offshore funding,...

Bitcoin vs 10Y Treasury Yield

Bitcoin trades like a long-duration asset, which means rising 10Y yields create headwinds and falling yields fuel rallie...

Bitcoin vs Federal Funds Rate

Bitcoin cycles align closely with Fed policy cycles because crypto is among the most rate-sensitive risk assets. Tighten...

Bitcoin vs M2 Money Supply

The core bull case for bitcoin is monetary debasement, which makes M2 a natural benchmark. Bitcoin has historically grow...

Bitcoin and VIX typically have an inverse relationship because VIX spikes accompany risk-off regimes that drain crypto. ...

Bitcoin vs High Yield Credit Spreads

HY spreads are the cleanest read on credit cycle stress, and bitcoin typically declines when spreads widen aggressively....

Bitcoin vs Fed Balance Sheet

Bitcoin has historically been highly sensitive to Fed liquidity. QE periods (2020-2021) coincided with massive BTC ralli...

What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?

What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal ex...

What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?

What happens when the VIX fear gauge spikes above 30? Historical analysis of extreme volatility events, market reactions...

What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?

What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and m...

What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates?

What happens to markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Rate hike cycle impacts on stocks, bonds, housin...

What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot?

What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portf...

What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply?

What happens when the US dollar surges? Impact on emerging markets, commodities, corporate earnings, and global financia...

What Happens When Unemployment Rises?

What happens when the unemployment rate rises? Consumer spending impacts, market reactions, and the economic feedback lo...

What Happens When Gold Surges?

What happens when gold prices surge? The risk-off signal, inflation hedge demand, central bank buying, and portfolio imp...

What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?

What happens when Bitcoin crashes 30%+? Crypto contagion, risk-off cascades, and whether BTC drawdowns spill into tradit...

What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails?

What happens when Treasury auctions see weak demand? Fiscal dominance concerns, yield spikes, and the threat to the glob...

What Happens When Inflation Expectations De-Anchor?

What happens when long-term inflation expectations break above 3%? Fed credibility crisis, policy dilemma, and the risk ...

What Happens When the Dollar Crashes?

What happens to global markets when the US dollar drops sharply? Impact on commodities, emerging markets, US equities, a...

What Happens When Gold Hits $3,000?

What does gold at $3,000 mean for the global economy? Analysis of what drives gold to record highs and the implications ...

What Happens When Initial Jobless Claims Spike?

What happens when weekly jobless claims surge? The highest-frequency recession indicator, what levels matter, and how ma...

What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative?

What happens when real interest rates turn negative? Financial repression, the war on savers, and how assets reprice whe...

What Happens When Bitcoin Halves?

What happens to Bitcoin after a halving? Historical price cycles, supply shock mechanics, miner economics, and how halvi...

What Happens When the M2 Money Supply Contracts?

What happens when the money supply shrinks? Monetarist deflation fears, historical rarity, and implications for asset pr...

What Happens When Financial Conditions Tighten?

What happens when the Chicago Fed NFCI signals tight financial conditions? How credit conditions transmit through the ec...

What Happens When USD/JPY Exceeds 160?

Extreme yen weakness forces BoJ intervention decisions. What happens to Japanese equities, global carry trades, and Asia...

What Happens When Bitcoin Crosses $100,000?

Bitcoin above $100,000 marks a major psychological milestone. What happens to crypto markets, institutional adoption, an...

What Happens When the Convex Net Liquidity Index Contracts?

What happens when aggregate USD net liquidity contracts? Impact on risk assets, Bitcoin, and equity multiples when Fed b...

What Happens When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses?

What happens when the Convex Risk Appetite Index collapses into extreme fear? Composite of VIX, credit spreads, put-call...

What Happens When 10-Year Real Yields Turn Positive?

What happens when 10-year real yields turn positive after a prolonged negative period? Impact on gold, tech stocks, and ...

What Happens When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands?

What happens when the Fed restarts balance sheet expansion (QE)? Risk asset response, inflation implications, and histor...

What Happens When the Treasury General Account Drains?

What happens when the Treasury General Account (TGA) drains? Liquidity injection effects, risk asset response, and debt ...

What Happens When Regional Banks Come Under Stress?

What happens when regional bank stocks (KRE) drop sharply? Deposit flight risk, commercial real estate exposure, and Fed...

Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency and macro risk-on barometer.

▶How often is Bitcoin updated?

Bitcoin is updated in real time throughout market hours. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.

▶Where does Convex source Bitcoin data?

Convex sources Bitcoin data from live market data providers including CoinGecko for crypto and major exchanges for equities and commodities. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.

▶What can I do on the Bitcoin chart page?

The Bitcoin page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.

Get daily macro analysis covering Bitcoin and related indicators delivered to your inbox.

Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated real-time. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.