Based on current macro regime conditions and primary dealer net positions — agency mbs's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 138,928.87 by 2026-12-31 ( +5.3% from 131,993 today). The 68% confidence range is 91,919.04 to 185,938.7; the wider 95% range is 46,789.61 to 231,068.13. Methodology below the headline.
Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 682 observations of Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/04]
Δ = divergence from +1.1% unconditional all-history average
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Macro regime
- •Monetary policy
- •Risk appetite
Historical Volatility
Moderate
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS depend on the current macro regime. Aggregate net positions of primary dealers in agency MBS (pass-through + non-pass-through), USD millions. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Primary Dealer category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Primary Dealer Net Positions — Agency MBS heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.