Based on current macro regime conditions and primary dealer total treasury fails (deliver + receive)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 183,952.9 by 2026-12-31 ( +16.1% from 158,424 today). The 68% confidence range is -135,547.6 to 503,453.39; the wider 95% range is -442,268.07 to 810,173.86. Methodology below the headline.
Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 682 observations of Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/04]
Δ = divergence from +3.5% unconditional all-history average
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Macro regime
- •Monetary policy
- •Risk appetite
Historical Volatility
Moderate
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive) depend on the current macro regime. Sum of weekly Treasury fails-to-deliver plus fails-to-receive across primary dealers, USD millions. Standard stress gauge for Treasury market plumbing; 2008 and Mar-2020 episodes saw multi-trillion-dollar spikes. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Primary Dealer category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Primary Dealer Total Treasury Fails (Deliver + Receive) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.