Based on current macro regime conditions and core pce (ex food/energy)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 131.96 by 2026-12-31 ( +1.4% from 130.08 today). The 68% confidence range is 131.47 to 132.45; the wider 95% range is 131.01 to 132.91. Methodology below the headline.
Core PCE (ex Food/Energy) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 298 observations of Core PCE (ex Food/Energy) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 13 | 3.41% | 0.28% | 12.26 | 100.0% | 3.41% |
| 3Y | 36 | 2.99% | 0.37% | 8.12 | 100.0% | 8.96% |
| 5Y | 61 | 3.77% | 0.45% | 8.33 | 100.0% | 20.34% |
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Consensus source: Cleveland Fed nowcast and breakeven inflation
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Energy prices
- •Shelter costs
- •Wage growth
- •Supply chains
- •Monetary policy
Historical Volatility
Low-moderate: 1-3% annual range under normal conditions
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Core PCE (ex Food/Energy) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Core PCE (ex Food/Energy) depend on the current macro regime. Inflation erodes purchasing power and forces central banks to tighten, squeezing equity multiples and increasing credit stress. Breakeven rates reveal what the bond market expects for future inflation, while CPI and PCE measure what consumers actually experience. Divergences between market expectations and realized prints create some of the highest-impact trading events of the year. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Inflation category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Core PCE (ex Food/Energy) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Core PCE (ex Food/Energy) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Core PCE (ex Food/Energy) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
Get forecast updates for Core PCE (ex Food/Energy) and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.