Based on current macro regime conditions and italy oecd cli's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 99.13 by 2024-12-31 ( -0.0% from 99.15 today). The 68% confidence range is 97.09 to 101.16; the wider 95% range is 95.14 to 103.12. Methodology below the headline.
Italy OECD CLI Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 270 observations of Italy OECD CLI history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 13 | 0.59% | 0.30% | 1.92 | 58.3% | 0.59% |
| 3Y | 37 | -0.44% | 1.41% | -0.32 | 52.8% | -1.33% |
| 5Y | 61 | -0.12% | 4.11% | -0.03 | 53.3% | -0.60% |
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Macro regime
- •Monetary policy
- •Risk appetite
Historical Volatility
Moderate
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Italy OECD CLI higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Italy OECD CLI depend on the current macro regime. The OECD CLI condenses dozens of forward-looking inputs (order books, business surveys, term spreads, share prices) into a single index normalized to 100. Cross-country comparisons reveal whether a downturn is local or global, and the U.S. CLI has historically peaked 6-9 months before recessions. Paired with IMF WEO staff forecasts for real GDP growth and current account balances across 20 economies, the leading-indicator suite gives a more robust turning-point signal than any single country in isolation. Convex tracks these drivers live across the OECD Composite Leading Indicators category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Italy OECD CLI lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Italy OECD CLI higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Italy OECD CLI heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
Get forecast updates for Italy OECD CLI and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.