MOVE Index Forecast 2026

The primary drivers that tend to lift MOVE Index depend on the current macro regime. Volatility is the market's price of uncertainty. The VIX measures 30-day implied equity volatility, the MOVE does the same for Treasuries, and SKEW captures demand for tail-risk protection. Persistent divergences between equity and bond vol often precede regime shifts, while spikes in both simultaneously signal broad deleveraging. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Bond Volatility category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.

The same transmission channels that drive MOVE Index higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.

Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.