Based on current macro regime conditions and 1-4 family residential mortgages outstanding's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 14,409,279.58 by 2026-12-31 ( +4.0% from 13,852,982 today). The 68% confidence range is 14,023,876.99 to 14,794,682.16; the wider 95% range is 13,653,890.5 to 15,164,668.65. Methodology below the headline.
1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 98 observations of 1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 5 | 2.77% | 0.41% | 6.71 | 100.0% | 2.77% |
| 3Y | 12 | 2.81% | 0.32% | 8.82 | 100.0% | 7.93% |
| 5Y | 21 | 4.87% | 1.81% | 2.69 | 100.0% | 26.83% |
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Macro regime
- •Monetary policy
- •Risk appetite
Historical Volatility
Moderate
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push 1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift 1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding depend on the current macro regime. Outstanding single-family residential mortgage debt held by US households, tracking mortgage-credit expansion cycles. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Flow of Funds category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push 1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive 1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see 1-4 Family Residential Mortgages Outstanding heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.