FedWatch Cut Probability (M4) Forecast 2026

The primary drivers that tend to lift FedWatch Cut Probability (M4) depend on the current macro regime. Cumulative probability of a rate cut by meeting M4 priced in CME Fed Funds futures. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Fed Policy Expectations category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.

The same transmission channels that drive FedWatch Cut Probability (M4) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.

Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.