Based on current macro regime conditions and china cpi yoy (oecd mei, legacy)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects -0.11% by 2025-12-31 ( +12.2% from -0.10% today). The 68% confidence range is 0.08% to -0.31%; the wider 95% range is 0.27% to -0.50%. Methodology below the headline.
China CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 184 observations of China CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 13 | 66.69% | 521.69% | 0.13 | 33.3% | -133.33% |
| 3Y | 36 | 64.77% | 410.37% | 0.16 | 42.4% | -104.76% |
| 5Y | 61 | 50.31% | 386.83% | 0.13 | 43.1% | -103.03% |
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Food and energy prices
- •Currency pass-through
- •Wage dynamics
- •Fiscal stance
- •Base effects
Historical Volatility
Moderate in DM, high in EM with currency instability
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push China CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift China CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy) depend on the current macro regime. China consumer price index, year-on-year change (OECD MEI). Feed stopped updating in April 2025; weo-cpi-cn (IMF WEO annual, via World Bank API) is the live fallback. NBS primary-source scraper blocked by WAF; paid API migration deferred. Convex tracks these drivers live across the International Inflation category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push China CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive China CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see China CPI YoY (OECD MEI, legacy) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.