Based on current macro regime conditions and monetary base's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 5,879.58 by 2026-12-31 ( +6.2% from 5,538.6 today). The 68% confidence range is 5,335.9 to 6,423.26; the wider 95% range is 4,813.97 to 6,945.19. Methodology below the headline.
Monetary Base Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 298 observations of Monetary Base history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 13 | -1.94% | 5.57% | -0.35 | 50.0% | -1.94% |
| 3Y | 36 | -0.43% | 4.66% | -0.09 | 51.4% | -1.25% |
| 5Y | 61 | -1.72% | 6.16% | -0.28 | 50.0% | -8.33% |
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Fed balance sheet
- •Bank reserves
- •Treasury General Account
- •Reverse repo facility
Historical Volatility
Low: trends are persistent, reversals are policy-driven
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Monetary Base higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Monetary Base depend on the current macro regime. Financial conditions indexes are the Fed's dashboard. The Chicago Fed's NFCI blends over 100 inputs spanning equity volatility, credit spreads, funding stress, and leverage. Real yields across the TIPS curve reveal the true cost of capital after inflation, while liquidity measures (reverse repo, TGA, reserves) show whether the system is flush or stressed. Together they form the transmission belt from policy rate to real economy. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Liquidity category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Monetary Base lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Monetary Base higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Monetary Base heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.