Quantitative analysis from 267 observations of 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
What factors could push 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share depend on the current macro regime. Primary dealer share at the latest 10-Year Note auction; dealers backstop the issue, so a rising PD share typically signals weaker indirect/direct appetite. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Treasury Auctions category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
Get forecast updates for 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.
10Y
122
0.00%
137.26%
0.00
47.1%
-100.00%
All
267
n/a
116.49%
n/a
45.7%
n/a
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Percentile Rank
0.0th
0.00median 22.05100.00
Current value 0.0000 on a 267-observation history going back to Aug 8, 2001.
Volatility Regime
normal
85.68%REALIZED 30D ANN
Sits at the 47.0th percentile vs full history. Median 94.55%.
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
VIX
Volatility regime: Low (<15), Normal (15-25), Elevated (25-40), Extreme (>40)
Credit regime: Tight (<350bps), Normal (350-500bps), Stressed (>500bps)
CURRENT:2.74→Tight (<350bps)
REGIME BUCKET
N
+30D
+90D
+1Y AVG
+1Y MED
HIT %
▍Tight (<350bps)
43
n/a
6.88%
1.69%
-1.33%
47.5%
Normal (350-500bps)
70
n/a
15.83%
16.99%
-4.09%
47.1%
Trade-Weighted Dollar
Dollar regime: bottom/middle/top tercile of trailing 5Y rolling distribution
CURRENT:120.89→Neutral (middle)
REGIME BUCKET
N
+30D
+90D
+1Y AVG
+1Y MED
HIT %
Weak (bottom tercile)
43
n/a
3.57%
-6.99%
-4.95%
45.2%
▍Neutral (middle)
61
n/a
2.74%
6.36%
3.53%
56.7%
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share; negative means it lags.
ANCHOR
ROLE
PEAK LAG
PEAK CORR
ZERO-LAG
RELATIONSHIP
Initial Jobless Claims
Labor leader
-10d
0.498
-0.025
lags target by 10d
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Recession leader
+7d
-0.364
0.083
leads target by 7d
NFCI
Financial conditions
-12d
-0.304
-0.063
lags target by 12d
HY OAS Spread
Credit risk leader
+36d
0.255
0.028
leads target by 36d
VIX
Volatility leader
-9d
0.218
0.109
lags target by 9d
10Y Treasury Yield
Discount-rate driver
-42d
-0.202
0.108
lags target by 42d
Copper
Global growth proxy
-43d
0.190
-0.011
lags target by 43d
Trade-Weighted Dollar
FX driver
-38d
-0.171
-0.023
lags target by 38d
Baa-10Y Spread
Credit risk (slow)
-27d
-0.165
-0.022
lags target by 27d
U-Mich Consumer Sentiment
Survey leader
0d
0.000
0.000
weak
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
-100.00%PEAK-TO-TROUGH
Peak Jun 21, 2019 → trough Jul 8, 2026. Has not yet recovered to prior peak.
All-time high: 100.0000 on Jun 21, 2019 · Current DD from ATH: -100.00%
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
▲ Up
Jun 21, 2019380.50%
Mar 8, 2023360.99%
Aug 8, 2012285.43%
Sep 12, 2022226.10%
Mar 9, 2022153.74%
▼ Down
Jul 8, 2026-100.00%
Feb 8, 2023-74.47%
Jul 10, 2019-73.84%
Feb 9, 2022-67.61%
Aug 10, 2022-66.91%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
MONTH
AVG RETURN
HIT %
N
January
-5.27%
33.3%
18
February
-9.00%
27.8%
18
March
43.41%
72.2%
18
April
8.25%
50.0%
18
May
-21.74%
22.2%
18
June
51.32%
70.0%
20
July
-10.53%
50.0%
18
August
-1.60%
27.8%
18
September
31.73%
50.0%
18
October
14.28%
52.6%
19
November
-12.02%
22.2%
18
December
15.59%
66.7%
18
N = 267 OBS · GENERATED 2026-07-02 22:00Z
What is the historical range for 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share?
▾
Historical ranges for 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the 10-Year Note Primary Dealer Share forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.