September 2025 PCE Report
Monday, September 1, 2025
PCE printed at 127.63, a +0.26% move from the prior reading of 127.29.
What to Watch For
- •Headline PCE year-over-year
- •Core PCE (Fed target)
- •Core PCE month-over-month annualized
- •Supercore PCE (services ex-housing)
- •Personal income and spending in same release
Expected Market Reaction
Hot core PCE: rates up, dollar up, equities mixed. Cold core PCE: rates down, dollar down, equities rally. Supercore increasingly cited, sub-indices can reverse headline reaction.
Related Assets Around the Release
Related Scenarios
What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portfolio positioning explained.
What happens when the bond market prices in deflation? When breakeven inflation crashes below the Fed target, it signals a deflationary spiral that changes the playbook for every asset.
What happens when real interest rates turn negative? Financial repression, the war on savers, and how assets reprice when holding cash guarantees losing purchasing power.
Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.