October 2025 FOMC Report
Wednesday, October 1, 2025
FOMC printed at 4.09%, a -3.08% move from the prior reading of 4.22%.
What to Watch For
- •Rate decision itself, cut, hike, or hold
- •Statement language changes (word-level diff)
- •Dot plot (SEP meetings only) vs prior
- •Dissents, direction and count
- •Powell press conference tone
- •Balance sheet (QT) pace changes
- •Economic projections vs consensus
Expected Market Reaction
Hawkish surprise: 2Y yields spike, curve flattens, dollar up, equities down, gold down. Dovish surprise: 2Y yields drop, curve steepens (bull steepener), dollar down, equities rip, gold up. Statement and presser can reverse each other, full reaction often takes 60-90 minutes to settle.
Related Assets Around the Release
Related Scenarios
What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and market playbooks for Fed easing cycles.
What happens to markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Rate hike cycle impacts on stocks, bonds, housing, and crypto explained.
What happens to markets when the Fed stops raising rates? Historical patterns from rate pauses, asset class playbooks, and what comes next after the final hike.
Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.