July 2025 CPI Report
Tuesday, July 1, 2025
CPI printed at 322.17, a +0.23% move from the prior reading of 321.44.
What to Watch For
- •Headline CPI year-over-year vs consensus
- •Core CPI (ex food and energy) vs consensus
- •Month-over-month core, the sequential read
- •Shelter inflation trajectory
- •Services ex-shelter (supercore), Fed's preferred gauge
- •Breadth: how many categories are running hot vs cool
Expected Market Reaction
A hot CPI print typically triggers: rates up across the curve (especially 2Y), dollar up, equities down (tech/duration-sensitive hit hardest), gold down if real yields rise. A cold print produces the mirror image: rates down, dollar down, equities rip higher, gold up.
Related Assets Around the Release
Related Scenarios
What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portfolio positioning explained.
What happens when long-term inflation expectations break above 3%? Fed credibility crisis, policy dilemma, and the risk of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral.
What happens when the bond market prices in deflation? When breakeven inflation crashes below the Fed target, it signals a deflationary spiral that changes the playbook for every asset.
Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.