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Correlation Deep Dive

Technology (XLK) vs Utilities (XLU): Correlation Analysis

Pearson correlation of daily returns for Technology (XLK) and Utilities (XLU). Rolling windows, yearly breakdown, regression beta, and divergence analysis. Data window spans to (1,262 aligned observations).

30-Day
-0.132
Essentially uncorrelated
90-Day
+0.010
Essentially uncorrelated
1-Year
+0.097
Essentially uncorrelated
5-Year
+0.298
Weak positive

What the Number Means

With a correlation of 0.01, Technology (XLK) and Utilities (XLU) are essentially uncorrelated at daily frequency. Either the relationship operates at a different time horizon or the shared driver has been dominated by idiosyncratic noise during the observation window.

Recent vs Long-Run Behavior

Last 90 Days
+0.010
5-Year Baseline
+0.298

The correlation has weakened materially. The 90-day reading of 0.01 sits 0.29 below the long-run average of 0.30. Falling correlation signals the dispersion regime where idiosyncratic stories dominate and cross-asset diversification benefits improve.

Statistical Details (1-Year Window)

Pearson Correlation (r)+0.097
R-Squared (r²)0.009
Beta (Technology (XLK) vs Utilities (XLU))0.138
Daily Volatility σ(Technology (XLK))1.27%
Daily Volatility σ(Utilities (XLU))0.89%
Observations252

Correlation measures directional co-movement; R² quantifies the fraction of variance explained by the linear relationship. Beta is the slope coefficient from regressing Technology (XLK) returns on Utilities (XLU) returns. A beta above 1 means the first asset amplifies moves of the second.

Year-by-Year Correlation

YearCorrelationStrengthObservations
2026+0.011Essentially uncorrelated91
2025+0.386Weak positive250
2024-0.012Essentially uncorrelated252
2023+0.220Weak positive250
2022+0.511Moderate positive251
2021+0.262Weak positive168

Year-by-year correlation reveals how the relationship has held up across different macro regimes. Sharp year-over-year swings in correlation often mark the transition between stress and calm periods.

Rolling 90-Day Extremes

Most Correlated Period
+0.713
ending 2023-01-11
Most Decoupled Period
-0.098
ending 2023-08-14

Extremes in rolling 90-day correlation often coincide with regime changes, forced deleveraging, or the arrival of a dominant new macro theme that overwhelms normal relationships.

Methodology

Correlations are computed on daily log-adjacent returns for Technology (XLK) and Utilities (XLU), aligned on shared trading dates. We use the Pearson product-moment coefficient, which measures the linear relationship between two return series.

Windows are the most recent N observations for 30D, 90D, and 1Y (252 trading days); the 5Y figure uses all aligned data up to 1,260 observations. Beta is the OLS slope from regressing the first series on the second. Data updates daily with a 24-hour revalidation cadence.

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Get daily macro analysis on shifting correlations, regime transitions, and cross-asset signals.

Correlation is not causation and backward-looking statistics can fail when regimes shift. Positions sized on historical correlation assumptions should be stress-tested against scenarios where the relationship breaks. For informational purposes only.