Energy vs Technology
XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) tracks energy sector with top weights ExxonMobil ~22 percent, Chevron ~15 percent. XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR) tracks tech with top weights AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AVGO, ORCL combined ~65 percent.
Also known as: Energy (XLE) (ETF_XLE, energy sector) · Technology (XLK) (ETF_XLK, tech sector)
Why This Comparison Matters
XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) tracks energy sector with top weights ExxonMobil ~22 percent, Chevron ~15 percent. XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR) tracks tech with top weights AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AVGO, ORCL combined ~65 percent. April 2026: WTI $95.85 (Iran war oil shock); XLK $155.03 (AI capex). The XLE/XLK ratio captures the ultimate old-vs-new economy rotation. Energy outperforms during inflation regimes, commodity supercycles, supply shocks. Tech outperforms during disinflation, growth scarcity, AI capex booms. April 2026 setup unusual: both rallying together as Iran war boosts energy + AI capex narrative continues. Pair captures dispersion within new equity dominance regime.
The April 2026 Configuration
XLE near 52-week highs (estimated +20-25% YTD on Iran war). WTI $95.85 (April 2026, +30% from January 2026). XLK $155.03 (April 21 2026, near recent highs).
XLE/XLK ratio approximately 0.55 (estimated). 12-month range 0.50-0.65. Long-term range varies: 2008 commodity peak XLE/XLK >2.0; 2020-2021 zero-rate AI bull XLE/XLK <0.30; 2022 Russia + tech bear XLE/XLK >0.85; 2024 AI bull XLE/XLK <0.45; 2026 Iran war XLE/XLK ~0.55.
The combined April 2026 reading: rare configuration where both XLE and XLK are rallying. XLE on Iran oil shock; XLK on AI capex narrative continuation. Configuration suggests inflation regime + AI capex coexisting. Watch for: which dominates if Iran ceasefire compresses oil; which catalyst exhausts.
How XLE and XLK Embody Old-vs-New Economy
XLE and XLK represent fundamentally different economic exposures.
XLE composition: integrated oil majors (XOM, CVX) ~37%; E&P (COP, EOG, OXY, PXD) ~25%; oil service (SLB, HAL, BKR) ~10%; refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX) ~12%; midstream (KMI, OKE, WMB) ~8%; integrated gas + renewables ~8%. Cyclical, capital-intensive, dividend-paying mature industries.
XLK composition: AAPL ~17%, MSFT ~14%, NVDA ~10%, AVGO ~6%, ORCL ~4%, plus other tech. Combined top 5 ~50%. Growth-oriented, capital-light (relative), R&D-driven, low-dividend (XLK ~0.7% vs XLE ~2.5%).
The practical implication: XLE/XLK rotation reflects macro regime. Inflation regime = XLE outperforms (commodity hedge + cyclical earnings). Disinflation/AI regime = XLK outperforms (multiple expansion + growth scarcity + AI capex). The 2024-2026 era saw both rally simultaneously due to dual narratives.
How XLE and XLK Diverge
Inflation regime: XLE outperforms XLK substantially. 2021-2022: XLE +50%; XLK -28%. XLE/XLK ratio +90% peak-to-peak.
Disinflation regime: XLK outperforms XLE. 2009-2014: XLE -20%; XLK +200%. XLE/XLK ratio -73% peak-to-peak.
AI capex regime: XLK outperforms XLE through earnings revisions despite higher rates. 2023-2024: XLK +75%; XLE +5%. XLE/XLK ratio -40%.
Commodity supercycle + AI: rare. April 2026 setup with both rallying. Iran war + AI capex coexisting.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Technology (XLK) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Energy (XLE). Computed from 1,287 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Technology (XLK) falls 0.11% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.39%. 129 qualifying events; Technology (XLK) closed positive in 51% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are XLE and XLK?+
XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) tracks energy sector with top weights ExxonMobil ~22%, Chevron ~15%, ConocoPhillips ~7%. XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR) tracks tech with top weights AAPL ~17%, MSFT ~14%, NVDA ~10%, AVGO ~6%, ORCL ~4% (top 5 ~50%). April 2026: WTI $95.85 (Iran war oil shock, +30% from January 2026). XLE near 52-week highs (estimated +20-25% YTD). XLK $155.03 (April 21 2026 near recent highs). XLE/XLK ratio ~0.55 (12-month range 0.50-0.65). Long-term range varies: 2008 commodity peak >2.0; 2020-2021 zero-rate AI bull <0.30; 2022 Russia + tech bear >0.85; 2024 AI bull <0.45; 2026 Iran war ~0.55.
How do XLE and XLK embody old-vs-new economy?+
XLE composition: integrated majors (XOM, CVX) ~37%; E&P (COP, EOG, OXY, PXD) ~25%; oil service ~10%; refiners ~12%; midstream ~8%; integrated gas + renewables ~8%. Cyclical, capital-intensive, dividend-paying mature industries. XLK composition: AAPL ~17%, MSFT ~14%, NVDA ~10%, AVGO ~6%, ORCL ~4%. Growth-oriented, capital-light (relative), R&D-driven, low-dividend (XLK ~0.7% vs XLE ~2.5%). XLE/XLK rotation reflects macro regime. Inflation regime = XLE outperforms (commodity hedge + cyclical earnings). Disinflation/AI regime = XLK outperforms (multiple expansion + growth scarcity + AI capex). 2024-2026 era saw both rally simultaneously due to dual narratives.
How do XLE and XLK diverge?+
Inflation regime: XLE outperforms substantially. 2021-2022: XLE +50%; XLK -28%. XLE/XLK ratio +90% peak-to-peak. Disinflation regime: XLK outperforms. 2009-2014: XLE -20%; XLK +200%. XLE/XLK ratio -73% peak-to-peak. AI capex regime: XLK outperforms through earnings revisions despite higher rates. 2023-2024: XLK +75%; XLE +5%. XLE/XLK -40%. Commodity supercycle + AI: rare. April 2026 setup with both rallying. Iran war + AI capex coexisting. Long-run correlation 0.30-0.50 (modest positive). Share market beta but diverge on macro regime.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.