VIX vs 10Y Treasury Yield
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
VIX and 10Y yields typically move inversely during equity drawdowns (flight to quality drives yields down while VIX rises). When both rise together, rate-driven equity stress dominates (as in 2022). When both fall together, easing monetary conditions and calm equity markets align, a classic goldilocks signal.
Cross-Asset Analysis
Before getting to the spread, note what each leg actually represents: VIX Index is CBOE Volatility Index, the "fear gauge" measuring S&P 500 expected volatility, and 10Y Treasury Yield is yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark. In risk-on windows, correlations across asset classes settle toward expected values, and the VIX Index-10Y Treasury Yield spread usually obey its historical fair value. Liquidity-driven phases produce cross-asset co-movement in VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield; fundamentals-driven regimes produce divergence.
Watching VIX Index together with 10Y Treasury Yield gives insight into how macro factors flow across different parts of the global market structure. Cross-asset flows follow macro regime changes with typical lags, which is why spreads like VIX Index-10Y Treasury Yield often lead coincident indicators. Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar underlie most cross-asset relationships, and when these change VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield both respond at asymmetric speeds.
Tactical allocators rotate across the VIX Index-10Y Treasury Yield spread based on where each asset sits relative to its model anchor. Cross-asset pairs like VIX Index against 10Y Treasury Yield surface the macro variables that traverse asset classes: liquidity, inflation, real rates, and risk appetite.
90-Day Statistics
No data available
No data available
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does VIX Index typically lead 10Y Treasury Yield?+
VIX Index tends to lead 10Y Treasury Yield during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in VIX Index precede corresponding moves in 10Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the VIX Index-10Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in VIX Index or 10Y Treasury Yield.
Is VIX Index a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Cross-asset hedges between VIX Index and 10Y Treasury Yield work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the VIX Index-10Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
Related Comparisons
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.