Unemployment Rate vs JOLTS Job Openings
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The Beveridge curve plots vacancies against unemployment. High openings with low unemployment means the labor market is extremely tight. When openings start falling while unemployment stays low, it signals the early stage of labor market normalization. The Fed closely watches this relationship because it hopes to reduce openings (cooling inflation) without spiking unemployment (avoiding recession).
Cross-Asset Analysis
Before getting to the spread, note what each leg actually represents: Unemployment Rate (U3) is headline unemployment rate, percentage of the labor force without jobs, and JOLTS Job Openings is job openings from the JOLTS survey, measures labor demand. Corporate action events, including buybacks or spin-offs affecting constituents of Unemployment Rate (U3) or JOLTS Job Openings, can distort the spread relative to its intended factor tilt. Inside the Labor Market universe, Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings represent different flavors of the same underlying exposure.
Index construction choices inside Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings, including weighting methodology and inclusion rules, create persistent tilts that show up in the spread. Performance attribution leans on Unemployment Rate (U3)-JOLTS Job Openings spreads to separate security selection from style allocation inside multi-manager mandates. Interest rate cycles drive Unemployment Rate (U3) versus JOLTS Job Openings relative performance through discount-rate sensitivity, with longer-duration exposures suffering more when rates rise.
In bull markets the more aggressive peer between Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings usually leads, while bear markets shift leadership toward the more defensive peer. Factor exposures embedded inside Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings drive their relative performance, with growth-value, large-small, and domestic-international all surfacing in the spread.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings?+
Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Unemployment Rate (U3) typically lead JOLTS Job Openings?+
Unemployment Rate (U3) tends to lead JOLTS Job Openings during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in Unemployment Rate (U3) precede corresponding moves in JOLTS Job Openings by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Unemployment Rate (U3)-JOLTS Job Openings relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings?+
Divergence between Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Unemployment Rate (U3) or JOLTS Job Openings.
Is Unemployment Rate (U3) a hedge for JOLTS Job Openings?+
Peers like Unemployment Rate (U3) and JOLTS Job Openings do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Unemployment Rate (U3)-JOLTS Job Openings pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.