Quits Rate vs Unemployment Rate
JOLTS Quits Rate (FRED JTSQUR) measures voluntary quits as percentage of total employment. High quits = worker confidence in finding better jobs (inflationary).
Also known as: JOLTS Quit Rate (quit rate, quits) · Unemployment Rate (U3) (unemployment, U3, jobless rate)
Why This Comparison Matters
JOLTS Quits Rate (FRED JTSQUR) measures voluntary quits as percentage of total employment. High quits = worker confidence in finding better jobs (inflationary). Low quits = workers fearful of leaving current jobs (disinflationary). Unemployment Rate (FRED UNRATE, U-3 headline) measures percentage of labor force unemployed. April 2026: quits rate approximately 1.9 percent (down from 2022 peak of 3.0 percent); unemployment 4.3 percent (up from 3.4 percent April 2023 cycle low). The quits-vs-unemployment relationship captures labor market dynamics: tight market = high quits + low unemployment; loose market = low quits + rising unemployment.
The April 2026 Configuration
Quits rate ~1.9% (April 2026, JOLTS data; latest release for February 2026). Unemployment 4.3% (March 2026 reading).
Quits rate trajectory: 2.7% (early 2022 peak) - 3.0% (Q2 2022 peak) - 2.7% (year-end 2022) - 2.5% (year-end 2023) - 2.2% (year-end 2024) - 1.9% (early 2026). Steady decline reflecting labor market loosening.
Unemployment trajectory: 3.4% (April 2023 cycle low) - 3.7% (year-end 2023) - 4.0% (year-end 2024) - 4.3% (March 2026). Steady rise.
The combined April 2026 reading: labor market loosening but not crisis. Workers less confident leaving jobs. Unemployment rising gradually due to labor force expansion + slowing hiring.
Why Quits Rate Matters
Quits rate is best leading indicator of labor market confidence and wage growth.
Mechanism: confident workers quit for better jobs. Workers seeking new jobs typically receive 10-15% wage increases (vs 3-5% staying). Higher quits = more wage pressure = inflationary.
Fearful workers stay in current jobs. Lower quits = less wage pressure = disinflationary.
Fed watches quits rate as inflation indicator. April 2026 quits rate 1.9% is below pre-pandemic 2.3% average. Suggests wage pressure moderating.
The practical implication: quits rate is leading indicator for wages by 3-6 months. Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker reflects job-stayers vs job-switchers. April 2026 quits rate suggests wage growth normalizing toward 3-3.5% (vs 4-5% peak).
The 2022-2026 Quits Rate Cycle
Quits rate experienced unprecedented cycle in 2021-2026.
2020 COVID: quits rate fell to 1.6% (April 2020). Workers held existing jobs.
2021-2022 Great Resignation: quits rate surged to 3.0% peak (Q2 2022). 47M workers quit jobs in 2021 alone (record). Highest sustained quits rate in 50+ year history.
2023-2024 normalization: quits rate fell to 2.2% by year-end 2024. Workers less confident.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are quits rate and unemployment?+
JOLTS Quits Rate (FRED JTSQUR) measures voluntary quits as percentage of total employment. High quits = worker confidence (inflationary). Low quits = workers fearful (disinflationary). Unemployment Rate (FRED UNRATE, U-3 headline) measures percentage of labor force unemployed. April 2026: quits rate ~1.9% (down from 2022 peak 3.0%); unemployment 4.3% (up from 3.4% April 2023 cycle low). Quits trajectory: 2.7% (early 2022) - 3.0% (Q2 2022 peak) - 2.5% (year-end 2023) - 2.2% (year-end 2024) - 1.9% (early 2026). Pre-pandemic 2.3% average. Below average suggests wage pressure moderating.
Why does quits rate matter?+
Quits rate is best leading indicator of labor market confidence and wage growth. Mechanism: confident workers quit for better jobs. Workers seeking new jobs typically receive 10-15% wage increases (vs 3-5% staying). Higher quits = more wage pressure = inflationary. Fearful workers stay. Lower quits = less wage pressure = disinflationary. Fed watches quits rate as inflation indicator. April 2026 quits rate 1.9% below pre-pandemic 2.3% average. Suggests wage pressure moderating. Quits rate leads wages by 3-6 months. Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker reflects job-stayers vs job-switchers. April 2026 quits suggests wage growth normalizing toward 3-3.5% (vs 4-5% peak).
What was the 2022-2026 quits cycle?+
Unprecedented cycle. 2020 COVID: quits fell to 1.6% (April 2020). Workers held existing jobs. 2021-2022 Great Resignation: quits surged to 3.0% peak (Q2 2022). 47M workers quit jobs in 2021 alone (record). Highest sustained quits rate in 50+ year history. 2023-2024 normalization: quits fell to 2.2% by year-end 2024. Workers less confident. 2025-2026 continued decline: quits fell to 1.9% (early 2026). Below pre-pandemic 2.3% average. Quits rate signals labor market loosening despite still-low unemployment. Worker confidence declining. Wage pressure moderating.
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