Tesla (TSLA) vs Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

An IDTechEx and International Copper Association consensus puts a battery-electric vehicle at 83 kilograms of copper on average, against 23 kilograms in a comparable internal-combustion model, a 60-kilogram intensity uplift per unit. Tesla's Model S has been documented at approximately 85 kilograms of copper across its drivetrain, battery pack, and wiring harness; the lighter Model 3 tracks closer to 70 kilograms. At Tesla's Q1 2026 delivery rate of 358,023 vehicles, the implied copper draw is roughly 25 to 30 thousand tonnes per quarter from a single OEM.

FCX produced 4.0 to 4.2 billion pounds of copper across 2024 (1.81 to 1.91 million tonnes), with copper running 70 to 80% of revenue and gold contributing 15 to 20% from the Grasberg complex in Indonesia. Tesla's quarterly copper consumption equates to roughly 1.4 to 1.6% of FCX's annual production. The pair is therefore not a direct supply-chain link in any quarter but a real-time gauge of whether EV-driven demand growth is keeping pace with the largest US-listed copper miner's output trajectory.

Tesla's April 2, 2026 release reported 358,023 deliveries against 362,615 produced, leaving roughly 4,600 unsold units rolling into Q2 inventory and adding to a builds-versus-deliveries gap that has been negative for four consecutive quarters. The miss reflected Chinese competition (BYD, Xiaomi, Li Auto) on the lower-cost end and softening Western European demand. Yet copper rallied, with the LME contract pushing $5.98 per pound in April 2026, a 60% gain from 2024 lows.

The explanation sits in FCX's own April earnings call. Management cut 2026 copper sales guidance from 3.4 billion pounds to 3.1 billion, citing Grasberg underground production shortfalls and lower ore grades at the North America operations. Morgan Stanley downgraded FCX on April 24, 2026 specifically citing Grasberg risk. The combination of weakening Tesla deliveries and tightening copper supply has produced a 2026 pattern where FCX has outperformed TSLA by roughly 18 percentage points year-to-date, the cleanest input-leads-end-product divergence the pair has produced since the 2021-2022 Tesla mania peaked.

Tesla trades at a forward earnings multiple that has ranged from 60x to 100x across 2024-2026, against FCX at 12x to 18x forward earnings depending on copper-price expectations. The implied equity duration gap, calculated as the inverse of free-cash-flow yield, runs roughly 25 to 30 years for TSLA against 8 to 12 years for FCX. A 100-basis-point move in 10-year Treasury yields therefore reprices TSLA mechanically by 8 to 12 percentage points more than FCX through the discount-rate channel alone.