Supercore Services CPI vs Headline CPI
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Supercore services ex-shelter captures wage-driven services inflation, the component the Fed watches closely. When supercore rises faster than headline, wage pass-through is keeping services inflation sticky even as goods disinflate. When supercore cools while headline stays high, goods and energy swings are driving the headline number and the Fed may see room to cut despite elevated CPI.
Cross-Asset Analysis
CPI: Supercore Services captures core services ex housing, the "supercore" metric the Fed watches for wage-driven inflation, whereas CPI (All Urban) reflects consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, the headline inflation gauge, and the difference between how they move is what the peer pair relationship is really about. Flows matter for the CPI: Supercore Services-CPI (All Urban) relationship: when one peer attracts more capital, it outperforms on demand pressure that tends to mean-reverts. Factor exposures embedded inside CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban) drive their relative performance, with growth-value, large-small, and domestic-international all surfacing in the spread.
Idiosyncratic events in a concentrated peer, such as a single mega-cap earnings miss inside CPI: Supercore Services, can move the CPI: Supercore Services-CPI (All Urban) spread without broader factor signal. Factor tilts expressed through the CPI: Supercore Services-CPI (All Urban) selection allow managers to adjust style exposure without changing their overall asset allocation. The CPI: Supercore Services-CPI (All Urban) spread captures the tilt between two variants of the same asset: one may be more defensive, one more cyclical.
Interest rate cycles drive CPI: Supercore Services versus CPI (All Urban) relative performance through discount-rate sensitivity, with longer-duration exposures suffering more when rates rise. Sector, style, and geographic dominance cycles each produce multi-year relative performance episodes between CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban).
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban)?+
CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban) are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does CPI: Supercore Services typically lead CPI (All Urban)?+
CPI: Supercore Services tends to lead CPI (All Urban) during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in CPI: Supercore Services precede corresponding moves in CPI (All Urban) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban) varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the CPI: Supercore Services-CPI (All Urban) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban)?+
Divergence between CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban) typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in CPI: Supercore Services or CPI (All Urban).
Is CPI: Supercore Services a hedge for CPI (All Urban)?+
Peers like CPI: Supercore Services and CPI (All Urban) do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the CPI: Supercore Services-CPI (All Urban) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.