Semiconductors vs Nasdaq 100
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF, 25 of the largest US-listed semiconductors) and QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF, 100 largest non-financial Nasdaq names) are both heavily AI-weighted. As of April 24, 2026, SMH trades near $482 and QQQ near $656.
Also known as: Semiconductors (SMH) (ETF_SMH, semiconductors, semis, chips) · Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) (ETF_QQQ, Nasdaq, NDX)
Why This Comparison Matters
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF, 25 of the largest US-listed semiconductors) and QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF, 100 largest non-financial Nasdaq names) are both heavily AI-weighted. As of April 24, 2026, SMH trades near $482 and QQQ near $656. The SMH-to-QQQ ratio is a real-time gauge of whether AI capex is broadening across semis or concentrating in Nvidia-plus-hyperscalers. SMH has outperformed QQQ by roughly 40 percentage points over the past three years, reflecting the semis-specific component of the AI capex cycle.
What SMH and QQQ Hold
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) tracks the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index, holding 25 of the largest US-listed semiconductor companies. Top holdings as of early 2026: Nvidia (~20 percent), TSMC (~13 percent), Broadcom (~8 percent), AMD (~5 percent), Qualcomm, ASML, Applied Materials, Intel, Micron. The fund launched December 20, 2011 and carries a 0.35 percent expense ratio.
QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF) tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, holding 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Top holdings: Nvidia (~9 percent), Apple (~7.6 percent), Microsoft (~5.7 percent), Amazon (~5.5 percent), Alphabet (~6.7 percent combined), Broadcom (~4.5 percent), Meta (~3.7 percent), Tesla (~3.5 percent). QQQ launched March 10, 1999 and carries a 0.18 percent expense ratio (reduced from 0.20 percent in December 2025).
Overlapping AI Exposure
SMH and QQQ have substantial overlap in AI-exposed names. Nvidia, Broadcom, and (through QQQ's broader tech names) Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon all benefit from the AI capex cycle. The practical difference is that SMH concentrates on the chip manufacturers themselves (Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, ASML, Applied Materials) while QQQ includes the broader software, platform, and consumer-tech ecosystem (Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Netflix, etc.).
Both ETFs have been AI-cycle beneficiaries since November 2022. SMH has risen approximately 3x from the ChatGPT release to April 2026; QQQ has risen approximately 2.1x over the same window. The SMH-to-QQQ ratio has therefore risen approximately 40 percent over three years, reflecting the semiconductor sector capturing disproportionate AI capex relative to the broader tech complex.
When SMH Leads QQQ: AI Infrastructure Phase
SMH outperforms QQQ when the AI story is in its capex-buildout phase: hyperscalers committing massive spending to GPU farms, data center construction accelerating, memory and networking demand surging. This has been the dominant pattern from late 2022 through 2024, with Nvidia's quarterly data center revenue growing from $3 billion annually to $194 billion (fiscal 2026 total). The $500 billion+ combined annual capex commitment from Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Oracle has flowed directly into SMH constituents.
The mechanism: AI workloads require specific chip types (GPUs for training, custom ASICs for inference, HBM memory, switching silicon). Companies designing and manufacturing these chips (SMH holdings) capture the direct capex spending. Broader tech names (most QQQ holdings outside semis) benefit second-order through productivity gains or platform monetization, which takes years to show up in revenue. SMH therefore leads QQQ in the early capex-deployment phase.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Semiconductors (SMH). Computed from 1,286 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) falls 0.08% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.29%. 128 qualifying events; Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) closed positive in 57% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between SMH and QQQ?+
SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) holds 25 of the largest US-listed semiconductor companies, with Nvidia at ~20 percent and TSMC at ~13 percent. QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF) holds 100 of the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq exchange, with Nvidia at ~9 percent. SMH is pure semiconductor exposure; QQQ is broader tech plus consumer discretionary and communication services. Expense ratios: SMH 0.35 percent, QQQ 0.18 percent. Both are highly correlated but SMH has outperformed QQQ by approximately 40 percentage points over the past three years during the AI capex cycle.
Why has SMH outperformed QQQ during the AI rally?+
SMH holds the chip designers and manufacturers that capture AI capex directly: Nvidia's GPUs, Broadcom's custom AI ASICs, TSMC's foundry services, ASML's advanced lithography machines, AMD's MI300 series. When hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle) spend $500+ billion annually on AI infrastructure, most of that spending flows to SMH constituents. QQQ holds these names too but at lower weights, plus many non-chip names (Apple, Tesla, Netflix) that benefit less directly. The result: SMH has risen roughly 3x since November 2022 while QQQ has risen 2.1x, a 40 percentage point spread over three years.
Is SMH just a leveraged Nvidia position?+
Not quite. Nvidia is approximately 20 percent of SMH, so SMH has meaningful Nvidia beta but also substantial diversification across TSMC (13 percent), Broadcom (8 percent), AMD (5 percent), and others. A leveraged 2x Nvidia ETF (like NVDL) would provide 2x NVDA exposure with daily reset; SMH provides roughly 0.25x beta to NVDA plus exposure to the broader semi ecosystem. SMH has delivered approximately 70-75 percent of NVDA's upside since 2022 with less volatility, because the non-NVDA holdings have appreciated but less dramatically.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.