Nvidia (NVDA) vs Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
SMH includes all major semis (Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom, AMD, Qualcomm). When NVDA outperforms SMH, AI-specific demand is dominant. When SMH outperforms NVDA, broader semi demand (memory, analog, legacy chips, auto) is taking over, often signaling a late-stage AI cycle or broader semiconductor rebound.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs Nvidia (NVDA) (nvidia Corp., the AI/GPU chip leader driving the AI capex cycle) against Semiconductors (SMH) (vanEck Semiconductor ETF, leads the tech cycle) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the cross asset pair relationship. Analysts merge Nvidia (NVDA) with Semiconductors (SMH) to build cross-asset indicators that are tougher to game than any single-market series. Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar underlie most cross-asset relationships, and when these change Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH) both respond at different speeds.
Cross-asset flows trail macro regime changes with well-documented lags, which is why spreads like Nvidia (NVDA)-Semiconductors (SMH) often lead coincident indicators. Implied volatility regimes in Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH) transmit through gamma flows that couple one market to the other via dealer balance sheets. Correlation trading desks price options on the Nvidia (NVDA)-Semiconductors (SMH) spread once the core relationship has been quantified across adequate regimes.
Liquidity-driven phases produce cross-asset correlation in Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH); fundamentals-driven regimes produce decoupling. Cross-asset pairs like Nvidia (NVDA) versus Semiconductors (SMH) expose the macro variables that span asset classes: liquidity, inflation, real rates, and risk appetite.
90-Day Statistics
No data available
No data available
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH)?+
Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Nvidia (NVDA) typically lead Semiconductors (SMH)?+
Nvidia (NVDA) tends to lead Semiconductors (SMH) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Nvidia (NVDA) precede corresponding moves in Semiconductors (SMH) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Nvidia (NVDA)-Semiconductors (SMH) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH)?+
Divergence between Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Nvidia (NVDA) or Semiconductors (SMH).
Is Nvidia (NVDA) a hedge for Semiconductors (SMH)?+
Cross-asset hedges between Nvidia (NVDA) and Semiconductors (SMH) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Nvidia (NVDA)-Semiconductors (SMH) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
Related Comparisons
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.