Nvidia (NVDA) vs Microsoft (MSFT)
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
NVDA versus MSFT is the AI stack rotation: chips (Nvidia) versus platforms (Microsoft). When NVDA outperforms, AI infrastructure spending is accelerating and GPU scarcity is the bottleneck. When MSFT outperforms, the market is pricing the monetization phase, meaning enterprises paying for AI-enabled software.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: Nvidia (NVDA) represents nvidia Corp., the AI/GPU chip leader driving the AI capex cycle and Microsoft (MSFT) represents microsoft Corp., enterprise software and cloud computing leader, which is why this comparison sits in the peer pair category on Convex. Sector, style, and geographic dominance cycles each produce multi-year relative performance episodes between Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT). Performance attribution leans on Nvidia (NVDA)-Microsoft (MSFT) spreads to separate security selection from style allocation inside multi-manager mandates.
Liquidity differences between Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) produce asymmetric spread moves during risk-off episodes. Late-cycle environments force Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) to express their respective defensive and cyclical tilts more sharply, making the spread a useful regime tell. Flows matter for the Nvidia (NVDA)-Microsoft (MSFT) relationship: when one peer attracts more capital, it outperforms on demand pressure that tends to mean-reverts.
In bull markets the more aggressive peer between Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) generally leads, while bear markets shift leadership toward the more defensive peer. Interest rate cycles drive Nvidia (NVDA) versus Microsoft (MSFT) relative performance through discount-rate sensitivity, with longer-duration exposures suffering more when rates rise.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT)?+
Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Nvidia (NVDA) typically lead Microsoft (MSFT)?+
Nvidia (NVDA) tends to lead Microsoft (MSFT) during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in Nvidia (NVDA) precede corresponding moves in Microsoft (MSFT) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Nvidia (NVDA)-Microsoft (MSFT) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT)?+
Divergence between Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Nvidia (NVDA) or Microsoft (MSFT).
Is Nvidia (NVDA) a hedge for Microsoft (MSFT)?+
Peers like Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Nvidia (NVDA)-Microsoft (MSFT) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.