10Y Treasury Yield vs CPI
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The gap between 10Y nominal and CPI year-over-year is the realized real yield. When 10Y rises faster than CPI, real yields expand, tightening financial conditions. When CPI outpaces 10Y, real yields compress, loosening conditions. The post-COVID period saw unprecedented negative real yields before the 2022 real rate normalization.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: 10Y Treasury Yield represents yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark and CPI (All Urban) represents consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, the headline inflation gauge, which is why this comparison sits in the cross asset pair category on Convex. Policy-driven transitions trigger sudden repricing into the 10Y Treasury Yield-CPI (All Urban) relationship because the two markets react to policy guidance on different timescales. Policy interventions can artificially compress or widen the 10Y Treasury Yield-CPI (All Urban) spread, most notably when central banks buy specific asset classes.
Risk-off regimes tighten correlations and compress the 10Y Treasury Yield-CPI (All Urban) spread into cramped ranges. Cross-asset pairs like 10Y Treasury Yield against CPI (All Urban) expose the macro variables that span asset classes: liquidity, inflation, real rates, and risk appetite. Analysts pair 10Y Treasury Yield with CPI (All Urban) to build cross-asset indicators that are harder to game than any single-market series.
Regime dating based on 10Y Treasury Yield-CPI (All Urban) can be feedback-driven, because extreme spread values often clear via mean reversion or regime change. Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar sit behind most cross-asset relationships, and when these change 10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban) both respond at varying speeds.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban)?+
10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 10Y Treasury Yield typically lead CPI (All Urban)?+
10Y Treasury Yield tends to lead CPI (All Urban) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in 10Y Treasury Yield precede corresponding moves in CPI (All Urban) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 10Y Treasury Yield-CPI (All Urban) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban)?+
Divergence between 10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 10Y Treasury Yield or CPI (All Urban).
Is 10Y Treasury Yield a hedge for CPI (All Urban)?+
Cross-asset hedges between 10Y Treasury Yield and CPI (All Urban) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 10Y Treasury Yield-CPI (All Urban) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.