What Happens to Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) When Small Caps Outperform Large Caps?
Small-cap outperformance signals risk-on rotation, Fed pivot, or earnings recovery. What happens when IWM leads SPY?
How Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad) Responds
Scenario Background
Small-cap outperformance versus large caps (IWM/SPY ratio rising) signals several potential regimes: Fed easing expectations, economic recovery, earnings-cycle acceleration, or rotation out of concentrated mega-cap leadership. Small caps are more cyclical, more domestic-focused, and more interest-rate sensitive than large caps.
Read full scenario analysis →Historical Context
Small caps (Russell 2000) have had several major outperformance cycles: 2003-2006 (recovery cycle, +75% outperformance), 2009-2011 (post-GFC recovery, +40%), 2016-2017 (Trump rally, +15%), and brief episodes in 2020 (+20% in 6 months post-COVID trough). Major underperformance cycles include 1998-2000 (tech bubble large-cap dominance), 2014-2024 (FAANG era), and 2022-2024 (high rates, strong dollar). Historical pattern: small-cap outperformance typically lasts 2-4 years once initiated, with total...
What to Watch For
- •Fed pivoting to cuts
- •Yield curve un-inverting (bull steepener)
- •Dollar weakness (DXY falling below 100)
- •Regional bank leadership (KRE/XLF ratio rising)
- •Small-cap earnings revisions turning positive
Other Assets When Small Caps Outperform Large Caps
Other Scenarios Affecting Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)
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