What Happens to Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) When Mortgage Rates Spike?
What happens when 30-year mortgage rates spike? Impact on housing affordability, homebuilders, banks, consumer spending, and the broader economy.
How Retail Sales (ex Food Svc) Responds
Scenario Background
Mortgage rates are the primary transmission mechanism through which Federal Reserve policy affects the housing market and, by extension, the broader economy. Housing represents roughly 15-18% of US GDP when you include construction, real estate services, mortgage banking, home improvement, and the wealth effect from home equity. When mortgage rates spike, this entire ecosystem contracts.
Read full scenario analysis →Historical Context
Mortgage rates spiked from 3.0% to 7.8% between January 2022 and October 2023,the fastest increase in modern history. Existing home sales fell 40% but prices barely declined nationally due to the lock-in effect. In the early 1980s, mortgage rates exceeded 18%, causing a devastating housing recession with prices falling 15-20% in real terms. The 1994 rate spike (from 7% to 9%) caused a mini housing recession and contributed to the Orange County bankruptcy. The 2018 rate increase from 3.5% to 5% s...
What to Watch For
- •Mortgage applications falling to multi-decade lows, demand destruction in progress
- •Housing inventory rising from lock-in lows, sellers capitulating despite rate pain
- •Homebuilder cancellation rates exceeding 25%,forward demand deteriorating
- •Bank earnings showing rising CRE delinquencies, commercial real estate stress emerging
- •Fed signaling concern about housing market dysfunction, potential policy response
Other Assets When Mortgage Rates Spike
Other Scenarios Affecting Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)
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