Scenario × Asset Analysis

What Happens to 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) When the Gold-Silver Ratio Exceeds 90?

Gold-silver ratio above 90 signals industrial or financial stress. What happens when gold dramatically outpaces silver, a classic late-cycle warning?

20Y+ Treasury (TLT)

$87.21

as of Apr 14, 2026

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Trigger: Gold (Spot)

$4,863.67

Condition: gold-silver ratio exceeds 90

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How 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) Responds

When the Gold-Silver Ratio Exceeds 90, 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) typically benefits from flight-to-quality flows. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, long-duration rates proxy. This scenario is particularly relevant for bonds & duration because changes in Gold (Spot) directly influence the macro environment for 20Y+ Treasury (TLT). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)'s response to position accordingly.

Scenario Background

The gold-silver ratio measures ounces of silver per one ounce of gold. The long-run historical average runs 50-70, but has ranged from 15 (1980) to 125 (2020 COVID). A ratio above 90 signals that gold is dramatically outperforming silver, typically indicating either financial stress (flight to monetary metal) or industrial weakness (silver has 50% industrial demand).

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Historical Context

The gold-silver ratio exceeded 90 during 1991 (peak 100), 2003 (peak 80+ briefly), 2016 (85), 2019-2020 (peak 125 in March 2020), and 2022-2025 (peaked near 95 multiple times). The March 2020 peak at 125 was the highest on record, driven by silver industrial demand collapse during COVID. The subsequent silver rally from $12 to $28 produced a 130% return in five months. The 2016 episode saw gold-silver peak near 85, followed by silver outperformance of 30% over the subsequent year. Historically, ...