What Happens to 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) When Emerging Market Currencies Crash?
What happens when emerging market currencies collapse? Contagion risk, capital flight, commodity impact, and whether EM crises spill over to US markets.
How 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) Responds
Scenario Background
Emerging market currency crises occur when capital rapidly exits developing economies, causing their currencies to collapse against the dollar. This can be triggered by US rate hikes (making dollar assets more attractive), commodity price collapses (reducing EM export revenue), political instability, or contagion from one EM crisis spreading to others.
Read full scenario analysis →Historical Context
The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis began with the Thai baht collapse and spread across Asia, causing EM equities to fall 50-60% and eventually triggering the Russian default and LTCM bailout. The 2013 "Taper Tantrum" caused significant EM currency weakness as the Fed signaled QE tapering, the "Fragile Five" (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey) saw their currencies fall 10-20%. In 2018, Turkey's lira and Argentina's peso crashed 40-50%, but contagion was limited to EM. The 2022 Sri Lanka...
What to Watch For
- •Multiple EM currencies weakening simultaneously, contagion dynamics in play
- •EM central banks aggressively hiking rates to defend currencies, tightening into weakness
- •US bank exposures to affected EM economies, transmission channel to US financial system
- •IMF emergency lending programs being activated, the crisis has reached critical level
- •EM sovereign CDS spreads spiking, the bond market pricing in default risk
Other Assets When Emerging Market Currencies Crash
Other Scenarios Affecting 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)
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