Scenario × Asset Analysis

What Happens to EM Dollar Index When Credit Card Delinquencies Spike?

What happens when credit card delinquencies spike? Consumer stress, retail impact, and bank earnings implications.

EM Dollar Index

128.17

as of Apr 10, 2026

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Trigger: Credit Card Delinquency Rate

2.94%

Condition: rises above 3.5%

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How EM Dollar Index Responds

When Credit Card Delinquencies Spike, EM Dollar Index typically responds to the changing macro environment. Dollar index weighted by emerging-market trading partners. This scenario is particularly relevant for fx & dollar because changes in Credit Card Delinquency Rate directly influence the macro environment for EM Dollar Index. Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and EM Dollar Index's response to position accordingly.

Scenario Background

Credit card delinquency rates measure the percentage of credit card balances past due 30+ days. Rising delinquencies signal consumer financial stress and typically accompany rising unemployment, declining real income, or the expiration of pandemic-era support programs. The threshold above 3.5% has historically been associated with meaningful consumer distress.

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Historical Context

US credit card delinquency peaked at 6.8% in 2009, troughed at 2.1% in 2021 (stimulus-boosted), and has been rising since 2022 from 1.6% (subset measure) through 3%+ by 2024. The 1990-91 recession saw delinquencies reach 5.5%. The 2020 COVID shock saw delinquencies decline due to stimulus payments and forbearance programs, an unusual pattern. Current levels, while below crisis peaks, are elevated relative to the 2014-2021 period.