Scenario × Asset Analysis

What Happens to Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) When the Copper-Gold Ratio Collapses?

Copper-gold ratio collapse signals growth concerns and is often called "Dr. Copper's recession warning". What happens when the industrial-to-monetary metals ratio crashes?

Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)

334.17

as of Mar 1, 2026

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Trigger: Copper Price (Global)

$12,951.35

Condition: copper-gold ratio falls to multi-year lows

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How Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) Responds

When the Copper-Gold Ratio Collapses, Core CPI (ex Food/Energy) typically responds to the changing macro environment. CPI excluding food and energy, less volatile measure of underlying inflation. This scenario is particularly relevant for inflation because changes in Copper Price (Global) directly influence the macro environment for Core CPI (ex Food/Energy). Investors should monitor both the trigger condition and Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)'s response to position accordingly.

Scenario Background

The copper-gold ratio measures pounds of copper per one ounce of gold. Copper is the industrial-growth proxy ("Dr. Copper" for its economic PhD). Gold is the monetary and safe-haven metal. Their ratio captures the balance between growth and fear in global macro.

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Historical Context

The copper-gold ratio hit cycle lows in early 2016 (coincident with Chinese stimulus concerns), December 2018 (Fed pause), March 2020 (COVID crash), October 2022 (hard-landing fears), and mid-2024 (growth concerns alongside AI optimism). Each low was followed by ratio expansion as either growth recovered or monetary easing supported both metals but copper benefited more from industrial demand recovery. The 2020 ratio bottom at 0.15 was followed by a move to 0.28 (87% gain) by 2022. The 1998 rati...