Eli Lilly and Company

Gold traded near $4,700 in mid-May 2026 even after the inflation shock of 2022 faded and real yields stayed positive. The clean explanation is not a resurrected CPI trade. It is a reserve-allocation trade: central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes a year from 2022 through 2024 and another 863 tonnes in 2025, changing who sets the marginal price.

Markets are pricing a fragile truce; the data says the risk premium is still too thin

A strait that reopens under threat of re-closure is not a strait that's open, markets will price that distinction Monday.

Markets are frozen at Friday's close, the repricing queue is building in silence.

From Brazil's rare earth gambit to the Warsh hearing, the signal density is unusually high.

Semiconductor demand is structurally intact, the question is whether stagflation absorbs the upside.

A supply shock reversal hits an already-crowded short oil book, but stagflation's inflation pillar takes a real hit.

Geopolitical relief clears one tail risk but does nothing for the CPI-stagflation nexus closing in on April 10.

Military action on nuclear facilities removes the ceasefire escape valve from our framework at the worst macro moment.