Macro Scenario Builder
Structure a macro scenario end-to-end. Every scenario needs a thesis, a set of triggers, a time horizon, an asset-exposure map, a base-rate probability with a reference class, and a watch-list. This tool enforces all seven and exports the result in three formats.
The core claim in one or two sentences. What must be true.
escalatory = outcome gets worse; benign = outcome is constructive; neutral = directionless.
Select everything that would re-price on resolution.
Specific events whose occurrence would validate the scenario.
How often does this class of scenario resolve as-described historically? Require a reference class below.
Historical analogues and their resolution frequency.
Live indicators whose direction resolves the scenario.
# Untitled Scenario **Thesis:** _(fill in)_ **Time horizon:** 6M **Polarity:** neutral **Base-rate probability:** 20% **Reference class:** _(fill in)_ **Affected asset classes:** - _(none selected)_ **Triggers:** 1. _(fill in)_ **Watchpoints:** - _(fill in)_ --- _Generated with the Convex Scenario Builder — https://convextrade.com/tools/scenario-builder_
{
"title": "",
"thesis": "",
"triggers": [
""
],
"horizon": "6M",
"assetClasses": [],
"baseRateProbability": 20,
"referenceClass": "",
"watchpoints": [
""
],
"polarity": "neutral"
}How Convex uses this schema
Every scenario tracked by the Convex research desk follows this schema. ThebaseRateProbability must cite an explicit reference class (historical analogues and the frequency at which they resolved). Thewatchpoints are the live indicators whose direction resolves the scenario. See the scenario library for live examples.