Pre-FOMC consolidation, AI earnings strength
Weekly Performance
| Asset | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 592.70 | +1.82% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 525.40 | +2.45% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 226.30 | +1.25% |
| 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) | 92.85 | +0.15% |
| DXY | 99.50 | -0.25% |
| Gold | 3255.00 | +0.55% |
| VIX | 16.85 | -3.15% |
| Bitcoin | 81,500 | +1.85% |
What Happened
The first week of March 2026 featured range-bound trading with an undercurrent of AI-led tech strength. February non-farm payrolls on Friday printed +185k (vs +170k expected) with unemployment holding at 4.7%, confirming labor market stability. The composition showed healthcare and government driving gains, while retail trade and manufacturing were flat. Wage growth printed 3.8% YoY, consistent with 2% inflation target on a 1.5-2.0% productivity assumption.
AI infrastructure names delivered another strong earnings week. Hyperscaler capex guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed at $320B aggregate (from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon combined), up 18% YoY. Semiconductor orders showed Q1 strength driven by ASIC and memory demand. NVDA reported 74% YoY revenue growth and raised guidance. The tech rally pulled the S&P 500 higher (+1.8% on the week) despite flat financials and declining defensives.
Rates markets were calm. The 10Y yield closed at 4.22%, little changed on the week. Fed funds futures priced 35% probability of a March 18 cut, down from 52% early in the week on firming data. The dollar index (DXY) consolidated near 99.50. Gold held above $3,250. The week set the stage for the March 18 FOMC hold and the broader Q1 consolidation regime that dominated March.
Key Events
- ·March 6: February NFP +185k, unemployment 4.7%
- ·March 4-6: Hyperscaler AI capex guidance reaffirmed at $320B
- ·March 5: NVDA reports Q4 revenue +74% YoY
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