Fed holds, tariff effects persist, markets drift higher
Monthly Performance
| Asset | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 599.40 | +2.80% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 531.20 | +3.50% |
| 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) | 92.25 | -0.50% |
| Gold | 3285.00 | +1.85% |
| VIX | 16.50 | -12.35% |
| Bitcoin | 82,500 | +5.20% |
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Month-end | vs. prior | vs. YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession probability (CVRP) | 36.00 | −2.00 | −24.00 |
| 10Y Treasury yield | 4.30% | +0.33pp | +0.07pp |
| 2s10s spread | 51bps | −8bps | +17bps |
| VIX | 25.25 | +5.39 | +2.97 |
| HY credit spread | 328bps | +16bps | −27bps |
| CPI (headline, YoY %) | 3.29% | — | — |
| Unemployment rate | 4.30% | −0.10pp | +0.10pp |
| WTI crude | $102.86 | +$35.90 | +$30.99 |
Values captured at month-end (last available daily observation). Sources: FRED (rates, credit, commodities, labor), BLS (CPI), Convex proprietary indices (CVRP).
What Happened
March 2026 was a transitional month as markets adjusted to the prolonged post-tariff regime. The Fed held rates at 3.75-4.00% on March 18, maintaining its patient stance as core PCE remained above 3%. Q1 earnings season ran strong through month-end, with S&P 500 aggregate earnings beating by 6% and revenue beating by 2%, driven by AI-related capital goods demand and resilient consumer services.
The S&P 500 gained 2.8% on the month, closing near 600. Tech sectors led as AI infrastructure capex continued accelerating. Semiconductors (SMH) gained 5.2%, utilities (power demand for data centers) gained 3.5%. Regional banks (KRE) gained 2.1% as CRE write-downs slowed. Gold consolidated near $3,300 after testing $3,400 earlier in the month. The dollar strengthened modestly as ECB and BoJ easing took rates lower abroad.
The month's character reflected late-cycle dynamics: earnings resilience despite elevated rates, continued AI capex cycle, and policy uncertainty around the May G20 summit and trade negotiations. Recession probabilities tracked by the Convex Recession Index declined from 45% to 38% as labor market data stabilized. The 10Y yield consolidated in the 4.15-4.35% range. Bitcoin traded in the $78,000-$85,000 band.
Key Dates
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Monthly recaps land in your inbox the first trading day of each month. Written by the research desk.