Election rally: S&P +5.7%, small caps lead on Trump win
Monthly Performance
| Asset | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 602.55 | +5.73% |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 509.95 | +5.24% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 241.37 | +10.58% |
| 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) | 92.51 | +2.34% |
| DXY | 105.74 | +1.94% |
| Gold | 2643.20 | -3.70% |
| VIX | 13.51 | -22.30% |
| Bitcoin | 94,930 | +37.30% |
Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Month-end | vs. prior | vs. YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession probability (CVRP) | 39.00 | −4.00 | −3.00 |
| 10Y Treasury yield | 4.18% | −0.10pp | −0.19pp |
| 2s10s spread | 5bps | −7bps | +41bps |
| VIX | 13.51 | −9.65 | +0.59 |
| HY credit spread | 274bps | −14bps | −110bps |
| CPI (headline, YoY %) | 2.72% | — | — |
| Unemployment rate | 4.20% | +0.10pp | +0.50pp |
| WTI crude | $68.26 | −$1.32 | −$7.40 |
Values captured at month-end (last available daily observation). Sources: FRED (rates, credit, commodities, labor), BLS (CPI), Convex proprietary indices (CVRP).
What Happened
November 2024 was defined by the presidential election and the decisive post-election rally. The week of November 4-8 delivered the majority of the monthly gain: S&P 500 +4.7%, small caps +8.6%, Bitcoin +12% on the Trump victory and clean Republican sweep. Markets quickly repriced deregulation expectations, tariff uncertainty (positive for domestic producers), and the policy regime change. The November 7 FOMC delivered 25 bp cut on schedule, providing additional tailwind.
Mid-month consolidation was orderly. The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range through November 15-22 as markets digested the election outcome and positioned for year-end. Thanksgiving week saw typical low-volume drift higher. The November 27 PCE print at 2.3% core was in-line, maintaining the Fed's glide path to continued cuts.
The month's cross-asset story reflected the policy regime reset. The dollar strengthened (DXY +1.9%) on growth divergence expectations. The 10Y yield declined modestly to 4.17% as cyclical narrative moderated. Bitcoin closed at $95,000, up 37% on the month, a historic gain driven by crypto-friendly Trump administration expectations and spot ETF inflows. Small caps outperformed large by 3 percentage points. Sector rotation saw financials (+10%) and industrials (+8%) lead.
Key Dates
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