US election 2024: Trump wins, markets await policy clarity

Election day 2024 delivered a clearer-than-expected outcome with Donald Trump projected to win key swing states by mid-evening. The S&P 500 closed up 1.09% during regular session as polls pointed to a quick result and reduced contested-election tail risk. Markets had been pricing meaningful election volatility premium through October, with VIX term structure inverted.

Overnight session saw the decisive move. S&P futures rallied 2% as Trump victory became statistically certain, completing the fastest post-election rally since 2016. By Friday November 8 the S&P had gained 4.7% on the week, with small caps (IWM +8.4%) leading on tariff and domestic-production tailwinds. The dollar strengthened 1.5%, 10Y yields rose 18 bps on fiscal deficit concerns, and Bitcoin rallied through $80,000 for the first time on expected crypto-friendly policy.

The election result reset many cross-asset priors. Tariff expectations were binary and immediately repriced: small-cap domestic producers up, China exposure down, cyclical goods up, long-duration bonds down on inflation concerns. The policy implementation would run through 2025, culminating in the April 2 Liberation Day tariffs that triggered the April 2025 market crash. The November 5 session marks the start of the Trump Term 2 market regime.