Iranian ballistic missiles strike Haifa refinery, escalating direct Israel-Iran conflict.

WHAT HAPPENED Iranian ballistic missiles struck Haifa's industrial district, targeting Israel's primary oil refinery complex and petrochemical facilities. The attack marks direct Iranian targeting of Israeli economic infrastructure, escalating beyond proxy warfare. Haifa Bay houses 60% of Israel's refining capacity and critical chemical production facilities.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: kinetic strikes on energy infrastructure trigger insurance repricing and supply chain disruption. The causal chain runs infrastructure attack → war risk insurance spike for Eastern Mediterranean shipping → potential refinery capacity loss → regional product shortage → Brent futures bid higher on supply concerns. Secondary transmission through Strait of Hormuz risk premium as markets price Iranian willingness to target energy infrastructure directly.

Brent crude: bid 4-7% on geopolitical premium (current $95.2/bbl suggests market hasn't fully absorbed escalation risk given FRED shows $127.61/bbl). Eastern Mediterranean shipping rates: insurance surcharges likely +$2-5K per container transit. VIX: upside from current 19.23 as regional war risk materialises. Long defence contractors (LMT, RTX) on escalation dynamics. Israeli sovereign CDS: significant widening expected. Gold: safe-haven bid above current $4,787/oz.

HIGH. Direct infrastructure targeting represents material escalation beyond previous proxy engagement. Iranian demonstration of precision strike capability against economic targets fundamentally reprices regional conflict risk and energy security assumptions.

Israeli retaliation targeting Iranian oil infrastructure. Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions or Iranian threats. US military deployment announcements. Oil product shortages in Israeli market. Insurance market JWC listing updates for Eastern Mediterranean.